====================================================================== CFJ 1105 The method Michael used is not sufficiently random and therefore incorrect according to the rules. ====================================================================== Judge: Morendil Judgement: TRUE Eligible: Antimatter, Blob, Chuck, Crito, General Chaos, Harlequin, Kolja A., Macross, Morendil, Murphy, Proglet, Steve Not eligible: Caller: Lee Barred: Michael Disqualified: - On hold: elJefe, Oerjan, Swann ====================================================================== History: Called by Lee, Thu, 3 Sep 1998 08:02:44 -0500 Assigned to Morendil, Tue, 8 Sep 1998 10:45:56 +0100 Judged TRUE, Tue, 8 Sep 1998 12:21:06 +0200 Published, Tue, 8 Sep 1998 11:35:22 +0100 ====================================================================== Judgement: TRUE Reasons and arguments: Whoa. I wish the Caller had been more precise in eir Statement - the method Michael used when ? E's used a few different ones in the past. I'm tempted to dismiss the Call on that ground, but I don't want to be too much of a nitpicker, so for clarity's sake : I take the above as referring to Michael's message relating to the determination of the outcome in the Call for Revolt made this September 3d. Michael indicated that e had used the following protocol to select a number between 1 and 17 for the purposes of determining that outcome, a selection which, being required to be a 'random' one falls under the purview of Rule 1079 : >To determine this in a verifiable way, I take the whole part of the >Dow Jones closing price for yesterday and take the modulo of this >number by 17 and then add one to get a number in the range 1 - 17. I >determine this method before calculating the result. In the ensuing discussion, several flaws were pointed out in the chosen method, some by Michael themselves; the apparent clincher, however, being a statistical analysis provided by Player Steve (chi-square test). Michael emself having declined to provide further proof of the 'randomness' of eir method, in the sense of 1079, and given the provision of 1079 which places the burden of proof upon the Player using a given random selection method, I am required to enter a Judgement of TRUE. ====================================================================== (Caller's) Arguments: Since Michael did not announce in the public forum the method he was using before the Dow Jones Closing price for yesterday, he could looked up the Dow Jones Closing Price and could have tested the results before announcing them. It is possible that if the results were not as he had liked that he could have chosen some other sufficiently published number, like the NYSE composite value, or the Dow Jones Closing price to the second decimal Place, and tested it until he came up with a method that seemed random, would be random if chosen and announced in the public forum before the number was available to calculate the result. ======================================================================